Even before the sickening revelations about former
Rep. Mark Foley, many conservative pundits had
begun arguing that Republicans would be better
off losing the midterm elections. This widespread
conservative death wish casts new light on the
Bush record. All these years, we've assumed President Bush was
running the country into the ground as a matter of principle. But perhaps his administration's penchant for failure is just
another way of pandering to the defeatist conservative base.
Conservatives say they want to lose, but can they pull it
off? Republicans may have the desire, but can they overcome
Democratic strategists' experience and expertise?
To be sure, Republicans have worked hard to lay the
groundwork for a big defeat. But national elections are
rarely lost solely on the merits. A losing campaign needs a
losing game plan.
In that regard, Republicans already seem to have stolen a
page from the 2000-to-2004 Democratic playbook. In
today's world, it's too risky to rely on a single bad strategy
to lose an election. Campaign strategists need a fail-safe
backup plan in case something goes wrong and the original
losing strategy has to be abandoned.
Republicans know how to devise a losing strategy. Just
ask Donald Rumsfeld. But when it comes to elections,
they've had trouble switching losing horses in midstream.
Sure, the Republican political strategy over the past six years
has been deeply flawed -- writing off the independent vote
and making a mess of America's economic and national
security. But instead of panicking down the stretch and
improvising a whole new failed strategy, Republicans stubbornly
ride it out. Even a bad campaign strategy can look
good when everyone sticks to it.
This year, the GOP seems determined not to make that
mistake again. Thanks to Tom DeLay's resignation and
Bush's unpopularity, party discipline will no longer hold
Republicans back. Bush's low numbers free other party
strategists to move out from under the shadow of Karl Rove.
Although Rove is fully capable of leading his party to
defeat -- he nearly blew the 2000 election in the closing
weeks, and he deserved to lose in 2004 -- he's not in the
same league as some Democratic consultants like Bob
Shrum, who could botch entire elections all by himself.
Free to think for themselves at last, Republicans have
already come up with at least three distinct and contradictory
losing strategies for 2006. The contradictions alone
suggest that together, Republicans can do worse.
The first Republican strategy has
been to raise the president's profile
down the stretch so that the election
is all about Bush. If Republicans
wanted to win the midterms, they
would have put Bush in a secure,
undisclosed location. They sent him
out on the campaign trail because
Bush's unpopularity is conservatives'
best hope for big midterm losses.
The second GOP strategy, which
became apparent during the standoff between the White
House and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) over the treatment
of detainees, has been to remind voters that moderation will
be allowed only on a case-by-case basis.
Yet both of these strategies can carry the GOP only so far.
Bush's name is not actually on any ballot in November, and
some voters may be confused about how to vote against him.
Others may see McCain's influence as a sign that what Ron
Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times calls "the prudence party"
has gained the upper hand in Republican circles.
To be on the safe side, Republicans have come up with a
third strategy to lose the midterms: Let Congress be
Congress. The press loves to focus on Bush's approval ratings,
which hover in the high 30s and low 40s. But according
to a recent New York Times poll, Congress' approval rating
is just 25 percent -- the lowest since the 1994 election.
Conservatives, rejoice! America hates the current
Congress -- and unlike Bush, every Republican House
member is actually on the ballot.
In recent weeks, growing tensions between the House and
Senate have helped remind voters how little Congress has
accomplished. With his eye on 2008, Senate Majority Leader
Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) has a particular incentive to give conservatives
the midterm spanking they're demanding. He made sure
to deliver a do-nothing Congress.
Republicans will need all these strategies, and a national
tide, to turn their base into happy losers in November. If they
didn't want to control Congress, Republicans shouldn't have
fought for partisan redistricting that saddled them with so
many safe seats.
Of course, if their party fails to lose this fall, conservatives
will be quick to blame Democrats. But by fighting back, running
hard, and offering an alternative, Democrats are trying to
help Republicans take a beating in November. Conservatives
are right to put their feet down: If Republicans can't lose this
year, they ought to find a new profession.
