Another conservative government bites the dust, this time in Israel,
shellacked at the polls by yet another politician presenting himself as a
different kind of center-left party leader. Ehud Barak now joins Bill
Clinton, Tony Blair of Britain, Gerhard Schroeder of Germany, Wim
Kok of the Netherlands, Massimo d'Alema of Italy and others in the elite
cadre of "Third Way" political winners. World-wide, conservative parties
have lost their former knack for winning elections, and they seem
especially tongue-tied and cross-footed when confronted with one of
these Third Way political animals.
To be sure, the local circumstances of electoral success are very different
in all these cases. Israelis are in the middle of life-and-death negotiations
with the Palestinians. Chancellor Helmut Kohl had led Germany for 16
years, which is arguably long enough for anyone. John Major was no
Margaret Thatcher. Bill Clinton is a political force of nature.
And of course the specifics of Third Wayism vary drastically from
country to country. Mr. d'Alema is in no danger of boasting Clinton-style
about a budget surplus any time soon. Nor will Mr. Schroeder be in a
position to crow as Mr. Clinton has about low unemployment, given the
chancellor's unwillingness to address the rigidity of the German labor
market. Mr. Kok's environmentalism makes Al Gore look a rather pale
green by comparison. In short, the Third Way as practiced in one
country might seem left-wing in another and harshly conservative in a
third.
It is also true that the idea of a "third way" in politics is nothing new.
Earlier in this century, blood-and-soil types seized the term as a label for
their fascist alternative to communism and capitalism. As recently as the
1970s, the Third Way was the term for the Swedish model --
unreconstructed socialism of a kind that would make Tony Blair blush
pink today. Even now, a certain plasticity to the term is inevitable, given
that the precise political location of the Third Way depends on where the
first two ways are. Mr. Clinton campaigned in 1992 as a centrist "New
Democrat." Most would say he moved left once he took office. Yet to
this day, he himself considers Hillary Clinton's 1993 proposal for a vast
new health-care bureaucracy a Third Way approach, because it rejected
that socialist favorite, a single-payer system.
Much of the Third Way is clear only to the eyes of its promoters. Yet by
now it is ridiculous to maintain that nothing of transnational consequence
is going on. And those who are consistently getting beaten by candidates
acting in the name of the Third Way probably ought to take it seriously.
The chief theorists of the Third Way in the U.S. are the folks at the
Progressive Policy Institute and the Democratic Leadership Council, with
which Mr. Clinton has a long association. At an April conference that
featured Messrs. Clinton, Blair, Schroeder, Kok and d'Alema, DLC
President Al From characterized their common Third Way point of view:
"Its first principle and enduring purpose is equal opportunity for all,
special privilege for none. Its public ethic is mutual responsibility. Its core
value is community. Its outlook is global, and its modern means are
fostering private-sector economic growth -- today's prerequisite for
opportunity for all -- and promoting and empowering government that
equips citizens with the tools they need to get ahead."
Mr. Clinton, kicking off the panel, voiced the view that it was no "blind
coincidence" that politicians like him were winning. It was a product of
popular dissatisfaction with older, liberal "social arrangements," coupled
with public realization that the parties of the right had no solutions of their
own. Mr. Clinton went on to organize the discussion around three
questions that form, for better or worse, the touchstones of the Third
Way: "How do you make the most of the economic possibilities of the
global information economy and still preserve the social contract?" "What
is the nature of the social contract now, and how is it different from what
it used to be?" "What do we mean by the concept of `community'?"
This may sound rather gaseous, and indeed it may be rather gaseous. But
it is also the language of people who take seriously not just the getting
and keeping of political power, but also the art and craft of governance.
In fact, Third Way adherents believe that taking governance seriously, in
the modern democratic context, is what will enable them to obtain and
keep power. They view their conservative opposition as fundamentally
antigovernment, and they think that their program for a government that
"works" for people will have a better claim on the electorate's affections
than a conservative claim based on a critique of "big government."
The main lines of the conservative response to the Third Way have been
as unserious as they have been ineffectual. The first criticism is that
Democrats, Social Democrats and other sundry Third Way pilgrims have
merely appropriated popular conservative ideas as their own in order to
get credit for them with voters. A second and potentially contradictory
proposition is that today's so-called center-left is flying a false flag and
remains at heart no different from the adherents of old-school liberalism.
The Third Way is in this sense merely an electoral strategy for obtaining
power by deceiving the electorate about one's true intentions.
The synthesis of these two lines of attack boils down to this: They are
who they are, and while they may make tactical concessions to political
reality, they will never change. So you run television ads accusing them of
being "liberal," "too liberal," even "embarrassingly liberal."
Unfortunately
for the conservative parties, this approach does not seem to have that old
black magic it did back when Michael Dukakis was running for
president.
The fact is that the political concessions (if that's what they are) of Third
Way governance have the effect of altering political reality. Democrats in
the U.S. are no longer offering proposals for nationalizing health care or
radically expanding government. Labor in Britain is not using its huge
parliamentary majority to nationalize heavy industry. Everybody loves the
bond market and long-term price stability. A former socialist finance
minister, Wim Duisenberg, is now the hard-headed chief of the European
Central Bank. We are none of us Keynesians now. At a minimum, the
political territory Mr. Clinton et al. have led us into is not the left,
traditionally construed, but the land to the right of the left.
This movement on the part of the world's center-left parties is the most
important political development of the decade. They have decided to
bury large enough swaths of their old ideology to obtain power and
govern. It is true that they have been aided in this by the success of their
predecessors' conservative policies in unleashing private-sector
economic growth. It is also true that they benefit from the collective
outbreak of global wisdom on such matters as fiscal policy. And the end
of the Soviet Union has mooted questions about whether they are fit to
fight the Cold War. Most of all, these government have not been tested
by a major international crisis or even, in the case of the U.S., so much
as a mild recession.
Maybe there are tasks the Third Way isn't up to accomplishing. Kosovo,
the first Third Way war, is not exactly reassuring. Yet it is surely bad
form for conservative parties to hope for worsening conditions, say
recession and battlefield defeat, so that their opponents can be seen as
faltering. It is also a product of desperation, the inability of conservative
parties to engage the Third Way politicians seriously, at least so far.
The truth is that Third Way politicians are perfectly happy to have cast
conservatives as an anti-government menace whose message for people
who fall down is "Get up." The conservatives are even useful, in their
way: Their political salience makes it possible (in fact, necessary) for
Third Way politicians to shackle their taste for activist government to
market principles, thus reinvigorating governments ossified by old-style
liberalism.
If conservatives don't like the role Third Way politicians have assigned
them, they are going to have to articulate a different one. It's probably
going to have to include a sense of what government is for, a question to
which conservative parties don't really have an answer now. The Third
Way politicians do, and that's why they're winning.