| |
Low estimate |
High estimate |
| All Illicit Drugs |
172 million |
250 million |
| Marijuana/hashish |
143 million |
190 million |
| Amphetamines/lab drugs |
16 million |
51 million |
| Cocaine |
16 million |
20 million |
| Opium/heroin |
15 million |
21 million |
Surveying the illegal-drug business this winter, the U.N.'s Office on Drugs and Crime guesses that between 170 million and 250 million people use at least one of the four big illegal drugs at least once a year. Production and use patterns break down as follows:
Cocaine: Coca leaf is cultivated in the Andes, with a 2008 crop estimated to produce 660,000 tons of dry coca leaf. This in turn suggests to experts 845 tons of cocaine -- slightly below the 905-ton average for 1994-2008. The United States and Canada are home to 7 million cocaine users, or about a third of the world's estimated total. Africa and Asia count 500,000 - 2.6 million cocaine users, Latin America about 2 million, and Europe 4 million.
Opium and derivatives: Opium, grown at various times in India, China, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Iran and Turkey, now mainly appears in Afghanistan. (And within Afghanistan, mostly in Helmand Province.) Heroin and other opiates are thought to have about 15 million - 21 million users worldwide, with about half the otal in Asia, especially Afghanistan and Iran. The United States estimate is about 1.3 million users; Europe's is somewhat higher.
Marijuana and related cannabinoids: Growing is world wide and less well-tracked, and may be concentrated for local markets. Total production is perhaps in a range of 13,000-60,000 tons of marijuana and 2,150-10,000 tons of cannabis resin; the largest sources for 'cannabis resin' appear to be Morocco and Afghanistan, while statistics on marijuana growing more generally are too vague to draw conclusions. The world user population, estimated between 145 million and 255 million, is much larger than those for other drugs and divides roughly evenly among the Western Hemisphere, Europe, Asia and Africa, with the highest rates in 'Oceania,' the United States and Canada at about 10 percent of population.
Amphetamines, MDMA, etc.: Amphetamines, MDMA and other synthetic drugs are produced worldwide in laboratories, also perhaps mainly for local use. The largest user populations, estimated between 6 million and 20 million, are in East and Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, estimates for the United States are 4 million, Europe and Africa 3 million each, and Latin America 2 million.
Few good guesses are available about the value of this business, but the UN's 2005 report bravely tried. Looking at data for 2003, it estimated three total values for narcotics sales: $13 billion in receipts for growers and producers; $94 billion in global "wholesale" receipts; and $322 billion in global "retail" sales. The retail total included $113 billion for marijuana and $29 billion for cannabis resin; $71 billion for cocaine in its various forms; $65 billion for heroin and other opiates; and $44 billion for amphetamines and other lab drugs.
Speculation about the import-export value of these products is even shakier. One approach would be to generalize from the export value for Afghan opium in 2003, which is thought to have been about $2.3 billion. The global $65 billion in opiate retail sales that year suggests a 30-fold increase in value from the border opium smuggler to the heroin user. If this held for other drugs (and setting aside any additional export value derived from treatments and chemical transformations in third countries), the world narcotics trade might have be somewhere around $10 billion in 2003. This would have been the equivalent of about 1 percent of the $7.6 trillion in merchandise trade that year.
In the United States - As in the world at large, data on America's drug business are shaky, and better for use and production than for economics. Two approaches yield a bit of insight:
Spending: Some years ago, a National Drug Control Policy report estimated that Americans spent about $64 billion on illegal drugs in 2000. If the UN's global estimate for 2003 and the NDCP's estimate for 2000 are reasonably close to the actual facts, Americans would account for a bit more than a fifth of world narcotics spending. This share is roughly equal to the United States' shares of world GDP and imports.
Usage: Usage data suggest a somewhat larger (but not vastly larger) American role. The Centers for Disease Control estimates that about 8 percent of the 240 million Americans above the age of 15 use illicit drugs at least once a year. Assuming worldwide use is close to the UN's high-end estimate of 250 million drug users world-wide, Americans, with about 6 percent of world population, would account for a bit less than 10 percent of the drug-using population.
Elsewhere in the world -
Afghanistan -- The 2008 Afghan crop of 7,700 tons of opium was about 90 percent of the world's 8,400-ton total. The potential 664 tons of heroin derived from Afghan opium is likewise 90 percent of a world total of 709 tons. Since then Afghanistan's opium crop has dropped a bit, to 6,600 tons in 2009. The UN report says Afghanistan's heroin exports were $2.8 billion in 2009 -- down from the $3.4 billion total of 2008, but still easily the largest piece of a $12-billion GDP. The U.S. Embassy in Kabul reviews the known facts: http://kabul.usembassy.gov/media/
afghan_opium_myths_and_facts-final.pdf
South America -- USAID's Peru office outlines 'alternative development' policy meant to reduce the financial appeal of coca-farming: http://www.usaid.gov/pe/altdevelopment.htm
Southeast Asia -- Bangkok-based APAIC (Asia-Pacific Amphetamine Information Center) reports on methamphetamine trends in Southeast Asia: http://www.apaic.org/index.php?
option=com_content&view=article&id=126&Itemid=133
Mexico -- The El Paso Times on drug cartels and violence across the river in Juarez: http://www.elpasotimes.com/juarez
Data and reporting -
The United Nations' Office of Drugs and Crime reports on narcotics production and use in 2009: http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/WDR-2009.html
And the UNODC's 2005 report, with an estimate of the size of the global illicit-drug business: http://www.unis.unvienna.org/pdf/nar910e.pdf
The Justice Department's 2009 National Narcotics Threat Assessment: http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs31/31379/index.htm
The White House's Office of National Drug Control Policy: http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/
The State Department's annual narcotics report: http://www.state.gov/p/inl/index.htm
