THE NUMBERS: CO2 emissions*, in billions of tons -

	1990	2007	2009	Kyoto target 2012
WORLD	22.5 billion	31.1 billion	31.3 billion	n/a
United States	5.0	5.9	5.3	4.6
European Union	3.3	3.3	3.1	3.1
Japan	1.2	1.3	1.2	1.1
China	2.5	7.0	8.1	n/a
India	0.7	1.5	1.7	n/a

* Billions of tons, estimates as of July 2010 by Netherlands Institute for Environment and Public Health ** 15 members as of 1997.

WHAT THEY MEAN:

Signed on an icy December day in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol's intricate formulae called on the 40 "Annex 1 countries" to cut their carbon emissions by 5.2 percent. In practical terms, this meant reducing rich-country emissions from a base of 1990's 15.2 billion tons to 14.36 billion tons by 2012. (The "Annex 1" list is essentially the world's developed economies, minus Korea, Israel, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan.) With two years to go the 40 countries are surprisingly close: the first estimate for 2009 emissions, done by the Netherlands' National Institute for Public Health and Environment, finds Annex 1 emissions at 13.7 billion tons, easily within the Kyoto bounds. Four explanations, of which two are very encouraging and two not:

• Energy efficiency: Most countries -- rich and poor alike -- have become more carbon-efficient since the 1990s. In the United States, a mix of private-sector and consumer innovation and sporadic policy efforts has helped cut carbon emissions per dollar of output by about 2 percent per year. Between 1990 and 2006, U.S. emissions fell from 617 tons of CO2 per million dollars of GDP in 1990 to 453 tons, though overall emissions grew from 5 billion to 6 billion tons. In 2009 (using Energy Information Administration estimates for emissions and Commerce Department GDP estimates) the figure seems to have been around 380 tons.
• Emissions trading: European and Japanese participation in Kyoto's global emissions-trading plan seems to be further promoting efficiency. By 2006, Japan was at 314 tons per million dollars of GDP and the EU 303 tons.
• Soviet collapse: Conversion of Soviet-era industry in central and eastern Europe cut that region's emissions from 4.9 billion tons to 3.1 billion tons by 1997. This won't be repeated -- since 2000, in fact, their emissions totals have been slowly climbing -- though the eastern European countries are still less carbon-efficient than their western peers.
• Financial crisis: The easiest way to cut emissions remains a recession. Since 2007 US emissions have dropped by 600 million tons (from 5.9 million to 5.3 million in the Dutch estimate, or from 6.0 billion to 5.4 billion by EIA's count). European Union emissions are likewise down by about 310 million tons, from 3.4 to 3.1 billion tons; Japan's by 150 million tons, and Canada and Australia combine for a 40 million-ton drop. Recovery is likely to raise the totals again, though perhaps not quickly to pre-crisis levels.

Thus the Annex 1 countries' Kyoto targets - at least temporarily and depending on the pace of recovery from crisis -- are within reach. America's 5.4 billion tons of emissions remains above the U.S.' 4.6-billion ton goal; and Canada and Australia are also above their targets. But the EU is at its 3.05 billion-ton target, Japan is in range of its 1.1 billion tons; and Russia and Ukraine are well below their 3.1 billion tons.

But the world as a whole is no closer to real reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Since 2007 the rich countries' CO2 emissions have dropped by 1.1 billion tons. Meanwhile, Chinese emissions have grown by a whopping 1 billion tons per year to 8 billion tons by the Dutch calculation -- which, even on a per capita basis, is a higher emissions rate than France's and not far below Britain's -- while Indian emissions are up by 210 million tons. So the rich countries' intentional and unintended efforts have been offset by rising emissions elsewhere, and world emissions have still risen: from 22.5 billion tons in 1990, to 24.2 billion tons at the Kyoto signature in 1997; then to 31.1 billion tons in 2007, and even with the crisis, to 31.3 billion tons last year.

FURTHER READING:

Policy -

The DLC's Energy and Environment page: http://www.dlc.org/ndol_ka.cfm?kaid=116

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: http://unfccc.int/2860.php

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch/

Sen. John Kerry pursues a climate-change bill: http://kerry.senate.gov/work/issues/issue/?id=1FD5C2D7-C30A-449E-BB71-391448F179FF

From the rich world's most carbon-efficient country, a guide to Swedish climate policy: http://www.sweden.gov.se/sb/d/2125/a/21787

And from the least carbon-efficient big economy, climate-change policy statements from the Chinese embassy in Washington: http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/zt/qhbh/

Data sources:

The Netherlands' National Institute for Public Health and the Environment -- most up-to-date, with emissions data by country through 2009: http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/500212001.pdf

The World Resource Institute's Climate Analysis Indicators Tool -- only through 2006, but with global comparisons on emissions by gas, emissions intensity, cumulative, etc.: http://cait.wri.org/cait.php

The Energy Department's databanks, through 2008 but with future forecasts and detailed looks at the United States: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/environment/emissions/carbon/

And some comparisons --

For climate purposes, the numbers which matter are the total-emissions counts. That said, last year's sluggish "Copenhagen" negotiations pitted rich countries looking for cuts in total emissions against China, India and some other countries advocating approaches based on per capita and 'cumulative' emissions. A quick look at cumulative emissions, emissions intensity and per capita emissions:

Cumulative emissions measures total emissions since the Industrial Revolution. These place the United States and European Union, along with smaller rich countries, at the top of the emissions list, as the United States and Western Europe industrialized before other parts of the world. But though the American and European emissions still account for about half the world total, China is now the second-ranking cumulative source of emissions, having passed Russia and Germany around 2005. The top sources of cumulative emissions from 1850-2006, from the World Resource Institute's Climate Analysis Indicators Tool:

World:	1150 billion tons
United States	334
(European Union)	(306)
China	99
Russia	98
Germany	90
United Kingdom	68
Japan	45
France	32
India	27
Canada	25
South Africa	13
Australia	13

Emissions Intensity measures tons of carbon produced per dollar of GDP. This measurement suggests that China and Russia, which respectively produced 1,046 tons and 885 tons of CO2 per million dollars of GDP in 2006, are far less efficient than the other major economies. Japan and the European Union are the most efficient; the United States, Canada, Australia, Korea and India are in the middle. All seem to be growing more efficient over time, though; in 1997, China's emissions rate was 1,846 tons per million dollars and Russia's 1,281 tons. Among rich and middle-income economies, the world's most efficient economies seem to be Sweden and Costa Rica, both at 164 tons per $1 million of output; France's 204 tons is the lowest rate among very big economies and China's the highest. Data for the world and assorted countries, also from C.A.I.T. and available only through 2006:

	1997	2006
WORLD*	807	612
China	1254	1046
Russia	1281	885
South Africa	989	830
Australia	633	600
India	621	496
Canada	587	472
United States	568	453
Japan	334	315
European Union	368	303

* GDP from IMF in currency-basis dollars. PPP-basis would give a reduction from 676 tons per million dollars in 1997 to 455 tons in 2006.

Per capita measures tons of CO2 produced per person each year. For obvious reasons this is the favorite counting-method for large developing countries hoping to put off emissions-reduction obligations. This leaves India well below the world average, but China and South Africa comparable to the European Union. (And Chinese per capita emissions up from 2.6 tons in 1997 to 6.1 tons in 2009.) In general rich-country per capita emissions have been declining while developing-country per capita emissions rise. From the Dutch report, as of 2009 -

WORLD	4.6 tons per person
Australia	18.8
United States	17.9
Canada	16.3
Russia	11.2
Japan	9.2
South Africa	8.0
European Union	7.9
China	6.1
(France)	(6.1)
India	1.4