Among conservative advocates, there is a growing view that the second
round of welfare reform should focus on marriage promotion as a central
objective. Pointing to the undisputed economic benefits of marriage, supporters
of this agenda argue that marriage could prove a panacea for women and
children in poverty. But, in fact, government programs have no track record
in this area. Whether government programs can effectively promote marriage
is thus far from certain.
Of course, the advantages of marriage are clear. Only 6 percent of married
couples with children are poor, compared with 36 percent of female-headed
families. Divorce sharply reduces the economic resources available to
women and their children, while remarriage is associated with economic
recovery. Unmarried persons have poorer physical and emotional health,
higher mortality, and are more likely to engage in "risky" behaviors,
including drug and alcohol use. Perhaps most important of all, children
do best when raised by their two biological parents.
Clearly, from a public policy standpoint, the government -- through reauthorization
of welfare reform legislation and other initiatives -- should not be indifferent
to marriage as a fundamental institution in American society. Nor should
it shy away from programmatic efforts to strengthen marriages and reduce
divorce. But overemphasis on marriage promotion should not distract us
from a more troubling long-term social problem: the 1 million or more
babies born each year to unmarried women. While marriage can be a pathway
from poverty, it seems to work only if women get married, stay married,
and marry well.
Unwed childbearing drastically reduces the likelihood that this will
happen.
Ultimately, marriage promotion must begin by discouraging out-of-wedlock
childbearing.
Getting married may be one solution to low income and poverty,
but only if low-income unwed mothers are, in fact, able to marry. Most
studies attribute low marriage rates to shortages of economically attractive
or "marriageable" men. But too often we fail to appreciate that
unwed childbearing also greatly diminishes women's own marriageability.
A study by Kelly Raley at the University of Texas shows that only about
10 percent of unmarried pregnant women marry the father before giving
birth. For women without partners, unwed childbearing reduces the ability
to find a spouse. Out-of-wedlock childbearing lowers rates of marriage
and leads to higher rates of poverty and welfare dependence. My research
with Deborah Graefe and J. Brian Brown, for example, showed that 87 percent
of all women today are expected to have their first marriage by age 40.
For women with a nonmarital birth, the corresponding figure is only about
70 percent. Unwed mothers are 30 percent less likely to marry in any given
year than otherwise similar childless women.
Staying married also is made more difficult by unwed pregnancy
and childbearing. Hasty marriages motivated by a nonmarital pregnancy
are highly unstable, with divorce rates well above the national average.
Unwed mothers also are more likely than other women to be involved in
unstable or serial relationships. They are more likely to move into and
out of cohabiting relationships and are substantially more likely to be
divorced or remarried than are women who wait to have children until after
they marry.
Marrying well. The statistics in this regard are dramatic. Data
from the National Survey of Family Growth indicate that only 30
percent of teen unwed mothers who marry are still in first marriages today.
Moreover, among women who have borne children out of wedlock, more than
10 percent are divorced for the second time but not yet remarried. In
contrast, nearly 60 percent of married women (without a nonmarital birth)
remain in first marriages, while only 20 percent are in later marriages.
The lesson is clear: Unwed childbearing often marks the beginning of a
series of unstable marriages or relationships with live-in boyfriends.
The best way to stay married is to avoid unwed childbearing in the first
place.
Finally, unwed mothers are less likely to marry well, that is,
to marry an economically attractive man who can provide enough family
income to lift her and her children out of poverty. Unwed mothers who
marry are substantially more likely than other women to be poor. In 1995,
30 percent of these mothers were poor, compared with only 8.4 percent
of women who had a marital birth and 4.6 percent of women who were childless.
Part of the reason is that they are less likely to marry good providers.
Our research shows that, among non-Hispanic white women, 57 percent of
those without a nonmarital birth eventually married men with more than
a high school education. This compares favorably with the 37 percent observed
among teen mothers and the 42 percent among older unwed mothers. Nearly
70 percent of white women without a nonmarital birth were married or cohabiting
with men earning $30,000 or more. This compares with only 48 percent among
non-Hispanic white unwed teen mothers who married.
Even if women with similar levels of education are compared, unwed mothers
are more likely to marry men with low levels of education and low earnings
potential.
For the minority of unwed mothers who get and stay married, marriage
confers clear economic benefits, if measured by reductions in poverty
and welfare dependence. This is especially true for women with disadvantaged
family backgrounds. For most unwed mothers and their children, however,
marriage offers, at best, only temporary relief.
Until we carefully evaluate which state marriage promotion programs are
effective, the best approach is a slow one. If marriage is a realistic
public policy goal, then we must first attend to the business of reducing
unwed childbearing.
