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DLC | Poll | March 7, 2001
Penn's Poll on Tax Cuts
By Mark J. Penn
Editor's Note: A full copy of this poll analysis is available on the Blueprint site. A slide presentation by Mark Penn is also available as a Microsoft Powerpoint file and as an Adobe PDF document.
Judging by President Bush's unyielding advocacy of tax cuts and media descriptions of an "unstoppable" juggernaut, one might assume that the president's tax cut proposal has near-universal public support. This assumption is quite far from reality. Tax cuts, while always popular, are not one of the top items on the national agenda. Not only do American voters have higher priorities than tax cuts for the surplus, but they also share different values than President Bush on how taxes should be cut.
Perhaps more important, while most voters like the general outlines of the Bush tax cut when it is offered in isolation, support dwindles rapidly when it is put into the context of other budgetary issues, such as paying the national debt. When alternatives to his tax cut are offered, the president loses.
These are some of the conclusions drawn from a DLC BLUEPRINT poll conducted by Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates February 15-22, 2001 of 500 registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent, larger for subgroups.
The highlights of the survey include:
- To most voters, the top priorities for the budget surplus are paying down the debt, strengthening Social Security and Medicare, and investing in education, training, and technology. Tax cuts fall behind all of these.
- Most Americans believe we have a budget surplus, but think the surplus will not be as large as it is estimated.
- While the Bush tax cut plan draws support, it is vulnerable to the charge that it benefits the haves over the have-nots, especially when it comes to eliminating the estate tax.
- A different approach to tax cutting has substantial appeal over the Bush approach.
- A majority of Americans would prefer to reduce the estate tax, not eliminate it --- so that it applies only to the wealthy.
- Voters want to take a more fiscally-responsible approach to tax cutting; over two-thirds support a trigger that stops the cut if the projected surpluses don't occur, and three-fourths think we should pass part of the cut now, and part later.
- A majority prefers payroll tax cuts to across-the-board tax cuts.
View the full copy of Penn's poll analysis....
Also:
Download a Microsoft Powerpoint presentation on the poll results....
Download an Adobe PDF version of the presentation....
Mark J. Penn is the president of Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates Inc., and was the pollster to President Clinton.
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