Executive Summary

Even as the Obama administration and Congress work to turn the economy around and restart America's job engine, it's not too early to recognize what skills will be in the greatest demand over the long haul, once the job market picks up again. With unemployment above 9 percent and still rising, we can't predict how soon job growth will begin. But for the long term, we can predict what the coming job boom will look like -- which jobs will likely grow the fastest and what level of skill they will require.

This study examines tomorrow's hot jobs in four of the fastest growing sectors of the economy: education, health care, information technology, and energy and environment. We define "hot jobs" as jobs paying above average wages (above the 2006 median wage of $32,000) and having above average growth (more than 10 percent), according to Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) projections for the period of 2006 to 2016.

Our analysis revealed a few things that we expected: the more education you have the more you can earn; and unemployment is significantly lower for the highly educated than for the less educated.

But we also discovered a number of surprising things about the critical importance of education, health care, energy, and information technology in long-term job creation and economic growth:

• Jobs that require associate degrees will grow at nearly double the national average. Over the next decade, college degrees will become more valuable than ever, and the demand for community college graduates will grow even faster than for those with bachelor's degrees.



• Nearly a third of job growth will be in health care and education. The two sectors produced the most job growth in 2008, and will generate more than three out of 10 new jobs over the next decade.



• The highest-paying hot jobs will be in Information Technology. IT jobs will require highly skilled workers with extensive education. Those who are properly trained will be rewarded with the highest-paying jobs.



• Jobs in energy and the environment could triple over the next decade. Spurred by the economic recovery package and other efforts to promote energy innovation, this sector will be a pillar of the new Hybrid Economy.

These findings underscore the need for the ambitious community college agenda that President Obama put forward in Michigan over the summer. His American Graduation Initiative, a top priority of the New DLC, would help 5 million more Americans earn community college degrees and certificates over the next decade.

As White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said in June, when he previewed the plan at a DLC forum on education and health reform:

What has been forgotten is how important the community college system is to our economy, our ability to compete in a global economy. It is literally the conveyor belt to allow people to upgrade their skills when they're going from X job to Y profession. As a former member of Congress who had a community college, two of them, in his district, I cannot tell you how important this is. It has not gotten the attention of the four-year institutions, but as a competitive advantage for the United States, the community college system is essential.

In February, President Obama told Congress and the nation, "I ask every American to commit to at least one year or more of higher education or career training. This can be community college or a four-year school; vocational training or an apprenticeship. But whatever the training may be, every American will need to get more than a high school diploma."

America's ability to generate hot jobs -- and individual Americans' ability to obtain them -- will depend on whether we can live up to Obama's challenge, and once again have the highest proportion of college graduates on earth.