Earlier this month, Penn and From gave a presentation detailing their findings. Their slides and the accompanying audio are available here.
This memorandum outlines in detail the principle conclusions from a recent survey commissioned by the DLC from Penn, Schoen and Berland, as well as our review of other recent polling data.
As you know, the DLC is focused on generating the innovative ideas and positive agenda that will enable America to succeed and prosper in a changing world. Democrats must be the party that seizes the future and we can best do that by offering a positive agenda for America's success. As we shape that agenda it is important to understand the political context in which we are operating.
The purpose of this memorandum is to begin to lay out what Democrats need to do to forge the kind of broad based center-left coalition of core and swing voters that we need to win in 2006 and 2008. The bottom line is this: because there are more self-identified conservatives than liberals in the electorate, if Republicans win all conservatives, Democrats need to win all of the self-identified liberals and more than seven of every 10 self-identified moderates just to break even. That is not an ideological statement, it's simple arithmetic. Simply put, Democrats cannot win unless they build a coalition of all liberals and most moderates.
Public dissatisfaction with President Bush and the Republicans has opened the door for Democrats to make significant gains in Congress and Statehouses next year and to recapture the White House in 2008.
The voters disagree with almost every major policy of the administration and Congress. They think the country is on the wrong track and they are looking for change. Republicans got in power under the banner of being moderate conservatives, and then they moved too far to the right, and this has provided a great opening for the Democrats.
But to take advantage of those opportunities Democrats need to capture the vital center and bring an abrupt halt to what voters perceive as the party's drift to the left. That means offering a positive agenda grounded in progressive Democratic principles, not simply highlighting their differences with President Bush. And, it means that Democrats need to be extremely careful to avoid inadvertently reinforcing the deficit on national security issues that played a large part in our 2002 and 2004 defeats.
Overall, we believe the political situation in America is more volatile than it's been in more than a decade. Just 25 percent of the voters we surveyed said they voted for the same party all the time. Fully 70 percent said they cross party lines at least some of the time in casting their ballots.
There's no doubt President Bush and the Republicans are in trouble. In the DLC-Penn Poll, just 34 percent of those surveyed believe the country is on the right track. In the Gallup Poll, the President's job approval rating stands at 41 percent, down 12 points from his post-election high last December. Voters give the President low marks for his handling of the war in Iraq and the economy -- the two issues they see as most important.
Moreover, we found that 39 percent of all voters and a staggering 49 percent of key independent voters believe the Republicans are too conservative -- and 31 percent of all voters and 34 percent of independents say they are becoming more conservative. Voters are unhappy, as well, with the ethical conduct of the Republicans. Significant majorities believe both Presidential Advisor Karl Rove and Rep. Tom DeLay should resign.
Against that backdrop, it is not surprising that Democrats hold a seven point lead in our survey in the generic vote for Congress and, significantly, a 20 point advantage among independents. When we asked voters which party they thought would win the White House next time, regardless of their own preference, they chose the Democrats by a staggering 58-28 margin.
Even with that lead in the generic vote for the House, however, Democrats still trail Republicans among key segments of the electorate -- like married people with kids, middle income whites, and white women. The inability to be competitive among those groups hurt John Kerry significantly in 2004.
But the story of the last two elections is that voters in the center can switch their votes right up to the last minute. And if Republicans move more to the right and if Democrats move more to the left, the voters in the center will sway back and forth. This means that the Democratic advantage while real today is not cast in cement.
Most of the Democratic edge results from the decline in the President's approval rating -- and almost all of that is among Republicans (he's down seven points since his December high) and independents (down 17 points). Those are voters from whom Democrats still have to earn support, and voters that Bush can win back with a small upturn in his fortunes. (The most recent Gallup Poll indicated he may be beginning to do that. His current 41 percent approval rating is up from 38 percent six weeks earlier. Nearly all of that increase can be accounted for by a five point gain among both Republicans and Independents.)
To secure their advantage, Democrats need to tell voters what they stand for. By 77 to 16, Americans we surveyed wanted the Democrats to present their own alternative agenda, not merely highlight their differences with the President.
That agenda must stop the view we found prevailing among voters that Democrats are drifting unacceptably left. Forty six percent of all voters -- and 43 percent of independents -- see Democrats right now as too liberal. And, 41 percent of all voters -- and 42 percent of independents -- see them as becoming more liberal.
It is important for Democrats to understand that despite Bush's decline, America remains a moderate to conservative country -- particularly on economic and security issues. The harsh reality is this: just 13 percent of all voters in our survey -- and just 16 percent of critical independent voters -- said they would vote for a liberal Democrat for president.
We found 36 percent of all voters identifying as conservatives, 47 percent as moderates, and only 16 percent as liberals. Moreover, seven in 10 Democrats self-identified as moderate (53 percent) or conservative (17 percent). Even among self-identified Democrats just 27 percent said they were liberals. On economic issues just 13 percent of all voters identified as liberals, on security issues just 14 percent, and on social issues 24 percent.
While the parties are seen as moving towards left and right, the voters are moving to the center. There are now more moderates and fewer conservatives and liberals than a quarter century ago when Ronald Reagan was first elected.
The challenge to Democrats is simply this. To make significant gains in Congress and win back the White House, they have to offer an agenda that convinces voters they will govern from the vital center.
We're convinced Democrats can do that by offering voters progressive ideas for keeping their families safe, assuring them a chance to get ahead, helping them raise their kids in a difficult environment, and fixing a political system that seems increasingly remote from everyday life. In other words the key for Democrats is to offer new and innovative ways to honor their first principles -- security, opportunity, responsibility, and community -- not to abandon their values.
In shaping alternative policies -- particularly on national security, terrorism and Iraq -- Democrats have to be very careful to avoid reinforcing the negative stereotype that has cost us so much in the last two national elections.
Even with Bush's decline -- Democrats hold a seven point lead on keeping the country prosperous and larger leads on other domestic issues -- the Republicans still hold the advantage on every national security issue we tested: a 40-36 lead on which party can better keep the country safe; a 45-40 lead on which party can be more trusted on national security; and, a 48-38 lead on which party can be more trusted to fight terrorism. Those GOP leads are double digit in each case among married voters with kids, middle income whites, and white women.
Despite the unpopularity of the Iraq War -- voters disapproved of the war by 54-44 in our survey -- Democratic leaders could be playing with political dynamite if they call for an immediate pullout of American troops. To be sure, in all polls we examined the American people would like to see American troops come home, but they worry about the consequences of an immediate withdrawal.
According to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, by 35-22 voters believe that the United States is more safe because of the Iraq War and by 40-8 they believe that the threat of terror in the U. S. would increase, not decrease, if troops were withdrawn now. Not surprisingly, under those circumstances, by 36-21 voters in that same poll said they would be less, not more likely, to vote for a congressional candidate who advocates immediate withdrawal.
(The DLC view of the correct policy in Iraq is articulated in this New Dem Dispatch. In short, it calls for a strategy that rejects both President Bush's "stay the course" appeals and demands for a deadline for withdrawing U. S. troops and calls instead for clear benchmarks for creating the conditions that will eventually allow Americans to leave Iraq safely and with honor.
It suggests: "Democrats should steer a course between two extremes. On one side are those in such a rush to end the war that they don't recognize the grave consequences of an immediate withdrawal. That is the wrong course for America, and the wrong course for our party.
"At the same time, Democrats should reject President Bush's habitual tendency to frame the Iraq question as a test of nerve. It is also a test of skill -- a test the administration has badly flunked.... The task for Democrats today is to hold the president accountable for results. We should press the White House to refine and meet its benchmarks, and put a new leadership team in place that inspires confidence. Above all, Democrats must make it clear to the public that we stand for winning in Iraq, not a rush for the exits.")
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By moving right, the Republicans have given Democrats the opportunity to recapture the vital center and to make gains in Congressional and gubernatorial elections in 2006 to recapture the White House in 2008. But that will not just happen automatically. Democrats need to make it happen by working aggressively to forge a coalition of core and swing voters -- of liberals and moderates -- that is large enough to prevail.
