Also available is the PowerPoint presentation Penn delivered to the DLC's 2003 National Conversation on Monday, July 28.

Fifteen months from the 2004 election, President Bush appears vulnerable, presenting Democrats with a real opportunity. But in order to take back the White House, Democrats must make inroads among suburban and middle class families with children. This growing segment of the population holds the bulk of swing voters -- and favors Republicans by increasingly wide margins. In fact, in terms of raw numbers of voters who identify themselves as Democrats, the Democratic Party is currently in its weakest position since the dawn of the New Deal. Exciting the Democratic base alone will not bring enough voters into the Democratic fold. The heart of the middle class -- suburban parents -- will decide whether a Democrat can defeat George W. Bush in 2004.

Apart from the expanding Latino population, the natural trends of growth in the electorate -- the decline of manufacturing jobs and the shift from cities to suburbs and exurbs, and the dramatic increases in college education and white-collar and professional jobs -- do not favor the Democrats. Quite the contrary; those trends have generally helped the Republicans, and will continue to do so unless the Democratic Party broadens its appeal. While the Democratic Party is seen as having the best platform for blue-collar workers and members of labor unions, they are not seen as a party with a program for suburbanites, white-collar workers, and professionals.

The good news is Democrats already have a set of principles that appeal to all of these groups: The New Democrat agenda.

Moderate and liberal Democrats alike support the centrist solutions proposed in the New Democrat agenda. So do married, suburban swing voters. If the party rallies behind New Democratic principles, Democrats have a real chance to take back the White House in 2004.

This information was gathered from a poll conducted by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates between June 29 and July 1, 2003 with 1,225 likely 2004 voters. The margin of error is 2.8 percent.

The highlights of the survey include:

• Democrats will have to neutralize the "security gap" -- the wide chasm between the parties on the threshold issue for the presidency. Many of society's most vulnerable voters, including seniors, place high importance on security. Swing voters are unlikely to vote for a Democrat unless he can offer a vision to compete with Republicans when it comes to national defense and homeland security. In the past, Democrats like President Clinton had to neutralize the Republicans on crime and welfare reform to be heard on other issues. Today, Democrats must be strong on security to be heard on the economy.
• Voters on the whole have mixed impressions of the Democratic Party. The ability of the Democratic Party to reach the growing segments of the electorate, and particularly married voters with kids at home, is hurt by current perceptions that Democrats stand for big government, want to raise taxes too high, are too liberal, and are beholden to special interest groups. These perceptions, which relegated Democrats to the sidelines in the 1980s, once again put the party at a disadvantage as it attempts to woo swing men and married men who currently lean heavily toward the Republican column.
• Key general election voters and even Democratic primary voters show a higher level of confidence in moderate Democrats than in liberal Democrats. This is true on a favorability scale and on trust in handling domestic issues like the economy, health care, and education; fiscal issues like taxes and government spending; and national security and homeland defense.
• The underlying values of the New Democrat agenda draw even stronger support in post-9/11 America. The New Democrat agenda remains central to expanding the party's appeal to moderates, especially among male swing voters. The agenda is also received positively by liberals.