As current and projected federal budget deficits continue to rise to unprecedented levels, administration officials from the president on down continue to dismiss concerns about the Bush Borrowing Binge with a combo platter of evasions and reassuring claims. They say (1) the deficits aren't that bad; (2) tax cuts will produce enough economic growth to balance the budget without further pain; and (3) who cares about deficits, anyway?

In an unprecedented collaboration aimed at driving a stake through these arguments, the nonpartisan Council for Economic Development, the bipartisan Concord Coalition, and the authoritative Center for Budget and Policy Priorities issued a joint statement last week entitled: "The Developing Crisis -- Deficits Matter."

"Without a change in current policy," the joint statement says, "the federal government can expect to run a cumulative deficit of $5 trillion over the next ten years. Moreover, the fiscal condition will deteriorate markedly in the decades that follow, as the cost of the baby boomers' retirement and healthcare needs consumes a rising share of the economy and the budget. Deficits over the next generation will dwarf the already large deficits the nation faces in the decade immediately ahead."

The three groups then proceed to demolish the don't-worry claims of the administration and its Congressional allies by reaching the following conclusions:

• The Deficit Really Is That Bad. The Congressional Budget Office is projecting ten-year deficits of "only" $1.4 trillion. But that's because CBO makes a variety of assumptions that are wildly unrealistic: Tax cuts passed in 2001 will be allowed to sunset; defense and homeland security spending will level off; no Medicare prescription drug benefit will be enacted; domestic appropriations will be deeply cut; and nothing will be done to avoid the impending disaster of millions of middle-class taxpayers being exposed to the Alternative Minimum Tax. Get rid of these five bogus assumptions and ten-year deficits bloom to $5 trillion.
• We Can't Grow Our Way To a Balanced Budget. Unfortunately, the projections that predict $5 trillion in deficits over ten years already assume historically high levels of economic growth beginning immediately and continuing for many years. "For economic growth to close the gap," the joint statement notes, "productivity would have to increase -- for decades on end -- at levels far above what GAO, CBO, administration economists, or private economics believe will occur." And every year Washington runs deficits, balancing the budget gets harder thanks to debt servicing costs: "Under current policies, interest costs will consume 15 percent of federal revenue by the end of the decade and much more in subsequent decades. We project that interest payments on the debt will reach $470 billion a year by 2013."
• Deficits Do Hurt the Economy. "If sustained over time at the levels projected, deficits ultimately will lead to slower growth and a lower standard of living. If they are financed by borrowing from domestic lenders, the economy will have less money available for investing in plant and equipment, education for our children and training for our workers, research and development, and other building blocks of our economic future.... If left unchecked, the long-term deficits described in this report could leave future generations less well-off than their predecessors for the first time in American history."

The joint statement goes on to describe in vivid detail two immense problems being created by the Bush Borrowing Binge that the administration rarely even addresses: the "squeezing out" of desirable public investments, and the terrible fiscal condition the country will face when it encounters the even-greater fiscal crisis of the baby boom retirement.

"Even with the full recovery that CBO forecasts and a generation of economic growth," the joint statement warns, "balancing the budget by the end of the coming decade would entail such radical steps as: raising individual and corporate income taxes by 27 percent; or eliminating Medicare entirely; or cutting Social Security benefits by 60 percent; or shutting down three-fourths of the Defense Department; or cutting all expenditures other than Social Security, Medicare, defense, homeland security and interest payments on the debt ... by 40 percent." These numbers inspired the Washington Post's David Broder to pen a column entitled "Fiscal Doomsday in the Offing" -- and that's scarcely an exaggeration.

Can it get still worse? Yes. "After the baby boom generation starts to retire in 2008," says the joint statement, "the combination of demographic pressures and rising health care costs will result in the costs of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security growing faster than the economy. We project that by the time today's newborns reach 40 years of age, the cost of these three programs as a percentage of the economy will more than double -- from 8.5 percent of GDP to over 17 percent.... As a nation we have yet to confront the difficult trade-offs this will require.... But adding to that challenge by running up the national debt over the next decade is not among the responsible options."

Even if you don't accept this or that particular statistic and argument from the three groups issuing this warning, their conclusion should be enough to call into serious question all the happy-talk from the administration and the Republican Party about the benign effects of borrowing trillions of dollars to reduce taxes on the most comfortable Americans while nothing is done to reduce spending. History will hold these ideologues responsible for the damage they are doing to the public treasury, the national economy, and the middle-class taxpayers who will bear the brunt of today's and tomorrow's borrowing costs. But with some foresight, Americans should begin holding them accountable right now.