As any "NASCAR Dad" could tell you, the "pole position" -- the front "inside track" starting position -- in a stock-car race is mainly of symbolic value, giving the best performer in qualifying heats a tiny advantage in the actual race. That's true of the "poll position" in political races as well. Early polls are more about early advantages than ultimate outcomes, especially in high-profile contests, like the one for the presidency.

That's why Sen. John Kerry's lead over President Bush in polls taken right after Kerry won the Democratic nomination didn't matter that much. And that's why the latest polls, showing Bush drawing even or moving ahead of Kerry, don't matter much either.

Among the "chattering classes" of Washington, though, the Bush micro-mini-surge in the latest polls has created a real stir. That's because they believe the president's had a really terrible two or three weeks, with scary news from Iraq, a battering from the 9/11 Commission, and a typically inarticulate presidential performance in his prime-time press conference.

The reality is that outside the Beltway, most Americans probably reacted to the crisis in Iraq by instinctively supporting the Commander-in-Chief; most found the 9/11 Commission hearings impenetrably technical; and most paid more attention to the president's well-crafted prepared remarks of resolve about Iraq and the war on terror than to his unscripted and often unsettling answers to press questions. You have to assume, moreover, that the Bush-Cheney campaign's estimated $50 million in negative ads attacking Kerry had some effect, while the welter of news from Washington and Iraq made it difficult for the Democratic candidate to get attention for anything he said other than occasional criticisms of Bush.

To use another sports analogy, it's time for a "game reset" to examine the fundamentals of the presidential race.

The president is still very vulnerable. The same polls that show him ahead of Kerry also show his approval ratings remaining dangerously low, confidence in his Iraqi reconstruction policies getting lower, and a majority of Americans still believing the country is on "the wrong track." A skeptical public has not been impressed by the first good month of job figures since last fall. Previous experience (including that of the president's father) has shown that voters pretty much make up their minds about an incumbent president's economic stewardship by the summer preceding his re-election bid. Time is running out rapidly for Bushonomics, and the overall record remains very poor.

Meanwhile, Karl Rove's famous swing voter strategy is in ruins. The administration's clumsy and unfunded implementation of No Child Left Behind, aimed at married women with kids, is making new enemies every day. A new survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that seniors are increasingly opposed to the new Medicare prescription drug benefit. And the president's guest worker proposal has failed to help him at all with Hispanic voters, while stimulating a noisy backlash from his indispensable conservative base.

Kerry's challenge is to define himself, his values and philosophy, his agenda and policies, as quickly and as clearly as possible. He must not only take advantage of Bush's vulnerabilities, but keep the GOP from making doubts about the Democratic Party and its candidate the focal point of the campaign, rather than the incumbent's poor record, broken promises, and empty future agenda. Most crucially, Kerry must undermine the bedrock premise of the president's case for re-election: that George W. Bush is the embodiment of the war on terror, and the indispensable man for keeping America safe. Kerry's ability and willingness to do just that are his best potential weapons as the campaign unfolds.

The bottom line is this: The race has just begun, and the early pole -- or poll -- position is worth little more than a gust of April wind.