If the history of recent general elections is a guide, the key to putting a Democrat back into the White House this fall will likely depend on how he fares with white voters with at least a high school education but no college degree.
White men and women who have received
their high school diplomas -- and those who
graduated from high school and have attended
some college while never getting a four-year
degree -- have been critical swing voters
in recent national elections. While Democrats
rarely win a majority of them, those key
voters vote significantly more Democratic in
elections Democrats win than in elections
they lose.
Our estimate is that together white men and
women with at least a high school education
but no college degree swing the outcome of
a general election by an astonishing average
of 6.7 percentage points between elections
that Democrats win and lose, respectively.
That is more than double the margin by
which President Bush defeated John Kerry
in 2004. Cutting into Republicans' traditional
margin with these voters could well mean
the difference between a broad Democratic
triumph and a narrow Democratic defeat.
On average, white men with at least a high
school diploma but no college degree swing
the outcome 3.7 percentage points, and
white women with the same education swing
it 3 percentage points.
To estimate the impact of swing voting
among various categories of votes, we
used exit poll results from six recent national
elections. We first computed for each
voter category the average marginal shift
in Democratic voting between elections
Democrats won and those they lost. Since
the impact of shifting on the outcomes of elections depends on the relative size of
the group, we then used the estimate of the
categories relative size (among all voters in
2004) to calculate how many percentage
points a Democratic candidate would win
from the shift.
For example, take white men with at least a
high school education but no college degree.
On average Democrats lost them in both
winning and losing elections, but in losing
elections they lost them by about 20 percentage
points more than in winning elections.
When that 20 percent shift is adjusted
for size (white men with at least a high school
education but no college degree made up 18
percent of all voters in 2004), the impact of
their swing is 3.7 percentage points on the
outcome of an election.
A typical male voter in that category will
likely be between 30 and 59 years old, live
in a suburb or small town in the South or
Midwest, and be married with no children
living at home. He's likely to be a Republican
or independent, moderate or conservative,
not a member of a labor union, pro-life,
and in favor smaller government. Finally, he's
most likely to be Protestant but not a weekly
churchgoer.
His female counterpart has an only slightly
different profile. She's also likely to be between
the ages of 30 and 59, married with
no children living at home, a Republican or
independent, moderate or conservative,
not a member of a union, pro-life, and for
smaller government. She's most likely to live
in a suburb in the South and have a gun in her household. Finally, she's more likely to be Catholic and a weekly churchgoer.
Those conclusions and profiles are the principal
findings of a study undertaken by the
Democratic Leadership Council that analyzed
exit poll data from the last five presidential
elections and the 2006 Congressional
election -- three national elections that
the Democrats won and three that they lost.
The purpose of this study was to identify
voters who if recent historical patterns hold
would most likely make the difference between
a Democratic victory and defeat and
who could be the key to a long-term Democratic
majority.
Among the other principal findings of our
study were:
- Despite all the talk about a rapidly changing
electorate, there have been relatively
small changes in the makeup of the voting
electorate over the past 20 years, and
the voting electorate in 2004 and 2006
remains remarkably similar to the electorate
in 1988.
- Certain categories of voters -- African-
Americans, self-identified liberals, and voters
who are strongly pro-choice -- voted
overwhelmingly Democratic in every
election regardless of which party won.
Based on voting history, those three categories
of voters constitute the Democratic
Party's base.
- About 40 percent of voters are part of
the Democratic base (i.e., in one or more
of the base categories in 2004). In 2004,
John Kerry won about 80 percent of voters
in those categories.
- To get to a majority, Democrats must
make up the difference by being competitive
among categories of voters who swing back and forth between the two
parties.
- While African-American voters vote consistently
and overwhelming Democratic,
key segments of white voters tend to
swing back and forth between the two
parties. Overall, white voters are likely to
swing the outcome of a national election
by an average of 10 percentage points --
voting more Democratic in elections
Democrats win and more Republican in
elections Republicans win.
- Two-thirds of that swing among white voters
is accounted for by the white voters,
profiled above, who have at least a high
school education but no college degree.
- To win a national election, Democrats
don't need to win those key categories
of swing voters, but they cannot be blown
out among them. Losing them by 5 percentage
points is likely to yield a Democratic
victory; losing them by 25 percentage
points is likely to yield a very different
outcome.
- In the 2004 election, base voters seemed
more driven by issues and candidate characteristics
that demonstrated compassion,
while swing voters seemed more driven
by issues and characteristics that showed
toughness. To win over both groups and
build an enduring majority, Democrats
must demonstrate both the compassion
to care and the toughness to govern.
These findings are not intended to be predictive
of the 2008 election, but rather to demonstrate
how voters have cast their ballots in
national elections. If recent patterns hold, the
ability of Democrats to run competitively
among key categories of swing voters could
prove to be the difference between victory
and defeat.
Download the full report (PDF)
Download tables of exit poll statistics (PDF)
