THE ALMANAC OF AMERICAN POLITICS, 2006
edited by Michael Barone and
Richard A. Cohen
National Journal, 1,888 pp., $69.95
I first ran across the biennial Almanac of American
Politics when the 1976 edition (its third) appeared in bookstores. Young
political junkie that I was, I spent one month's discretionary income --
about $20 -- on the tome, then went home and devoured it in three days.
Today the Almanac costs $70, but it remains a vast and unmatched
compendium of information on the
political history, recent electoral results,
demographic data, and political trends
of every state and every congressional
district in the United States. It also
offers brief profiles of every governor
and member of Congress, along with
appendices on congressional committee
assignments and campaign finance data.
At 1,888 pages, it is, in short, the bible
of the political class.
In recent years, however, the
Almanac has increasingly borne the
personal political stamp of its original
co-editor and now primary editor,
Michael Barone. As a columnist
at U.S. News & World Report, Barone
has drifted from his previous role as a
dispassionate numbers-cruncher into
new prominence as an A-list conservative
pundit. Unfortunately, his
right-leaning views are beginning to
infect the Almanac's previously unassailable
reports on states and districts.
Barone's drift has been easy to track
through his introduction to each new
edition of the Almanac. The introductory
essay stands apart from the state-bystate
analysis as its author's personal take
on the national political scene. As
Barone's tilt has become more distinct
over the years, this preliminary essay is
now getting as much media attention as
the Almanac itself. This began in 1996,
when Barone's analysis of the revival of
"Tocquevillian America" was sometimes
cited as the definitive interpretation of
the Republican Revolution of 1994.
In 2000, Barone's essay derided
President Clinton's accomplishments
as a long exercise in political "sogginess,"
echoing a major Republican
talking point. In the 2002 edition, he
rightly focused on partisan parity, but
also hyped President Bush's leadership
qualities.
Every one of those essays added value
in the details; Barone still knows his
numbers and how to read them. But the
new edition makes it clear his personal
allegiance to the Republican Party is significantly
affecting his judgment.
Barone's opening essay in the new
volume ("American Politics in the
Networking Era") focuses relentlessly on
the mechanics of party turnout efforts
in 2004. He's correct, of course, to note
that the Republican technique of highly
targeted, person-to-person outreach
efforts under the centralized operational
and message control of the Bush campaign
outmatched the less-targeted and
fragmented Democratic drive.
But Barone, as suggested by the
essay's title, misinterprets this reality
by suggesting that the two parties'
turnout strategies reflected a superior
Republican understanding of the
Information Age and a Democratic
Party mired in the top-down, interest
group-dominated politics of the distant
past.
The truth is that an incumbent
Republican president had the unique
ability to place vast and early resources
into a centrally controlled grassroots
outreach initiative, while the Democratic
challenger had to play catch-up
with get-out-the-vote efforts by the
official campaign and a variety of
uncoordinated "527" groups. Had the
election featured an incumbent
President Gore, the situation might
have been reversed.
Similarly, Barone's discourse on the
emergence of "New Media" in 2004 is
interesting and accurate at the macro
level, but quickly descends into agitprop,
with an extensive
endorsement of the idea
that enterprises like Fox
News are a useful corrective
to the liberal bias in
the mainstream media.
Worse yet, Barone argues that the
Swift Boat Veterans for Truth smear of
Democratic presidential nominee
John Kerry was a legitimate response
to the Old Media's refusal to examine
Kerry's war record.
What really stands out in Barone's
essay is an indifference to actual issues
and objective reality, especially as they
might bear on the Republican Party's
future. He devotes a whole section to
an argument that Democrats are
deeply split between those who accept
"American exceptionalism" in foreign
policy, as exemplified by Bush, and
those who don't. But actual and
potential fault lines in the GOP are
glaringly ignored.
Never mentioned are differences
among Republicans, not only over Iraq,
but between economic and social conservatives,
starve-the-beasters and deficit
hawks, pro- and anti-immigration
advocates, and K Street and Main Street
factions. Nor is there any acknowledgement
that Bush's provocative second-term
agenda (most of which was well
under way when the Almanac went to
press) is creating a serious backlash
across broad segments of the voting
population.
Throughout the book are signs of
Barone's undisguised political preferences.
There are annoying references
to Republicans being aligned with the
forces of entrepreneurship and civic
vigor, and Democrats being dependent
on interest- and constituency-group
blocs dependent on government
power. An illustrative example is the
section on Ohio, the ultimate 2004
battleground state.
After conceding that the long-time
Republican ascendancy in the Buckeye
State provides a good opportunity for
Democrats, here's what the Almanac
says:
So where does Ohio stand in history? Is
it New Deal Ohio, with ethnic factory
workers arranged against small-town
businessmen, ethnic Catholics against
rural Protestants, all engaged in a contest
to see how far and in what ways government
should be enlarged? Or is it
McKinley's Ohio, with mechanical tinkerers
and can-do manufacturers, adaptive
businessmen and employees, striving
to work hard, raise families and serve
communities that feel little class conflict
or economic envy?
It's not very hard to see where
Barone comes down on this choice of
anachronistic models. Worse, and even
more revealing, is the Almanac's long
section on former House Majority
Leader Tom DeLay, which systematically
defends The Hammer against the
serial ethics charges he worked so hard
to earn. But at the very end of this vigorous
essay, Barone the conservative
advocate gives way to Barone the statistical
analyst, who notes DeLay's anemic
2004 margin of victory in an overwhelmingly
Republican Texas district,
and predicts that he "must expect serious
competition from Democrats at
home in 2006."
Ultimately, the Almanac's growing
conservative bias is endangering its
well-earned reputation as an authoritative
source on American politics.
This book will still be on the shelves
in 2006, when it's entirely possible
Democrats will make major gains
against a Republican federal government
highly vulnerable to charges of
arrogance, corruption, incompetence,
and irresponsibility -- none of which
is even hinted at in the latest
Almanac.
If that happens, Michael Barone
will pay the price for pledging his
genius to one side in the perennial
battle of American politics. And the
Almanac's reputation will suffer
accordingly.