Iraq Elections: A Large Step Towards Legitimate Self-Government
Although the results of yesterday's Iraqi elections will not be compiled for a number of days, several important facts appear beyond dispute:
- Despite the threat and reality of violence aimed at voters and candidates, turnout was impressively high -- indeed, higher than in most recent U.S. elections;
- Despite a boycott sponsored by most Sunni Arab leaders, Sunni turnout was much better than expected wherever it was physically possible;
- While Shia are sure to dominate the new government, Sunni representation will likely reflect that community's proportion of the population, and President Allawi 's secular-minded multi-party alliance appears to have done quite well;
- The Iraqi elections were widely publicized in independent Arab media as successful, and as more significant than the insurgents' efforts to subvert them.
This means that during the last year, elections have been successfully carried out -- with women participating -- in three very unlikely places: Afghanistan, Palestine, and now Iraq, despite strong efforts by Jihadists to reduce participation.
There is no question this should be grounds for celebration in all democratic countries, regardless of one's views on the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. And it should definitely be happily welcomed by everyone in the United States, regardless of one's views on the foreign policy of the Bush administration. It's a vindication of the universal appeal of our most fundamental values, and Democrats in particular should make that clear.
At the same time, we should all recognize that these elections, while a large step towards legitimate self-government in Iraq, are only the first step down a perilous path.
The new government must now negotiate a constitutional arrangement that can be supported by Kurds and Sunni Arabs. It must again hold successful elections under that constitution. The newly enfranchised Shia majority must avoid the temptation of Iranian-style theocratic triumphalism. And of course, the Jihadist-Baathist insurgency, which may now become dangerously desperate, must be defeated.
Outside Iraq, Sunni Arab governments have a particularly important role to play in conveying moral legitimacy and offering tangible help to the fragile new democracy. They must overcome their misgivings about Shia enfranchisement, and their fear of democratic impulses in their own populations, to help promote a settlement in Iraq that avoids the twin perils of a perpetual Sunni insurgency and a Shia abandonment of pluralism and a commitment to minority rights. The internationalization of the Iraqi transition toward full self-government is more urgent than ever, and now, with a government in Baghdad enjoying genuine popular legitimacy, is more feasible than ever. Deployment of Arab peacekeeping forces in the Sunni Triangle would be an especially effective measure, both symbolically and materially.
Those European governments that so vehemently opposed the invasion of Iraq also have a special responsibility to step forward and help nurture the roots of democracy while assisting in the long-delayed rebuilding of the physical infrastructure and economy of Iraq.
And here in the United States, those on all sides of the debate about the original decision to invade Iraq need to understand that the initiative is finally beginning to swing towards the Iraqis themselves for determining not only their own future, but our role in making it possible.
The Bush administration was right to insist on the elections going forward on schedule. But now that the Iraqi people have become enthusiastically involved in their own country's governance, the administration can no longer ignore the palpable unhappiness of most Iraqis with the dominant role we have played up until now. The president recently (and wrongly) called the U.S. elections last November a referendum on his Iraq policies. We hope he doesn't try to claim that the Iraqi elections also represented a thumbs-up to his administration's often-incompetent management of the brave troops who have been struggling and dying to give self-government a fighting chance.
But those who share our dim view of administration Iraq policies -- and those who opposed the invasion itself -- must also understand the turning point Iraq is now beginning to reach. Each step toward a legitimate government in Baghdad means that government, not the Pentagon or the U.S. Congress, should be the main arbiter of the extent to which U.S. troops are needed to ensure the country does not relapse into chaos or lurch into civil war. As Sen. John Kerry said just yesterday, this is no time for Democrats to issue arbitrary calls for withdrawal of U.S. troops according to some fixed timetable. This kind of rush-to-the-exits is grossly ill-timed, as a matter of both politics and of policy, in the wake of the best news to come out of Iraq since the toppling of Saddam's regime. With luck and skill and strong international support, the new Iraqi government may be in a position before long to begin showing us the door. Indeed, that may well be a critical part of a political deal to secure Sunni Arab support. But let the Iraqis figure that out.
The Iraqi transition to self-government is a prospect that should unite all Americans, and all friends of peace and democracy. At a time when the odds of winning the peace have just gone up, it's time not only to celebrate the courage and zest for democratic self-expression of the Iraqi people, but to support them in the hard struggle ahead.